Gloria Picks the Oscars

My predictions: (bolded)

Best Animated Film
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville

Finding Nemo was the animation film juggernaut this year. Everyone I know has seen it. You can't stop the hype, and Pixar has the corner on the market for popular animated films that also achieve critical success.

Best Art Direction
Girl With a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

The Return of the King will storm the Oscars, and rightfully so. From the castle-city of Minas Tirith to the dank, bone-keeping spider's lair, RotK was an awe-inspiring fantasy vision.

Best Cinematography
City of God
Cold Mountain
Girl With a Pearl Earring
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

Miramax got the shaft in most categories, but they did well in assembling their creative team for Cold Mountain. Director of Photography John Seale's admittedly stunning purple mountain majesties are just the kind of epic nature photography Oscar goes for, too.

Best Costume Design
Girl with a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

While I thought Russell Crowe looked pretty bad-ass as the stalwart ship captain in Peter Weir's impeccably designed Master and Commander, and those legions of Elves all had a distinctive look in RotK, Oscar tends to favor pretty and inoffensive period garb like those displayed in the snooze-inducing Girl with a Pearl Earring. They all wear pretty colors, but pretty does not equal stylish, memorable, or revelatory of character. Girl is none of the above, but it's tasteful and therefore will beat out the other nominees.

Best Documentary Feature
Balseros
Capturing the Friedmans
The Fog of War
My Architect
The Weather Underground

Capturing the Friedmans has a really strong fan base that could pull it through, though it's bound to be a tight race with Fog of War.

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum
Chernobyl Heart
Ferry Tales

Asylum has already achieved critical buzz, and it's important. The film includes discussion of genital mutilation, a veritable Oscar can't-miss.

Best Editing
City of God
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

I'm not sure any of these were well-edited, and favorite Return of the King is the worst of the bunch. Seabiscuit would be my personal choice, but I'll side with Master and Commander.

Best Foreign Language Film
The Barbarian Invasions
Zelary
The Twilight Samurai
Twin Sisters
Evil

Zelary is an inspiring Czech film set during World War II. And you know how Oscar loves inspiring WWII stories.

Best Makeup
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Check it out, it, all movies with colons in the title! I'm picking the one with the absolute longest name: Pirates of the Caribbean.

Best Score
Big Fish, Danny Elfman
Cold Mountain, Gabriel Yared
Finding Nemo, Thomas Newman
House of Sand and Fog, James Horner
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Howard Shore

Howard Shore's score helped rouse us during the battle scenes and brought us to tears during the emotive climax of RotK. Yes, it did, precious.

Best Original Song
Into the West from The Lord of the Rings:The Return of the King, by Fran Walsh, Howard Shore and Annie Lennox
A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow, from A Mighty Wind, by Michael McKean and Annette O'Toole
Scarlet Tide from Cold Mountain, by T Bone Burnett and Elvis Costello
The Triplets of Belleville from The Triplets of Belleville, by Benoit Charest and Sylvain Chomet
You Will Be My Ain True Love from Cold Mountain, Sting

Sweet dreams are made of these! Into the West is a bittersweet ditty, and we just love that Annie Lennox. But while this isn't the comeback I was hoping for, I'll take what I can get.

Best Animated Short Film
Boundin'
Destino
Gone Nutty
Harvie Krumpet
Nibbles

Boundin' for glory!

Best Live Action Short Film
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
Most (The Bridge)
Squash
(A) Torzija
Two Soldiers

If you build it, they will come! So says Most (The Bridge).

Best Sound
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Seabiscuit

The Last Samurai, for the same reasons as the best costume award.

Best Sound Editing
Finding Nemo
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Why does this category exist? They might as well call this category the award for Loudest Movie, which means Master and Commander wins.

Best Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

And the longest title goes to... aha ha... oh we made that joke already. Return of the King has the most outstanding effects of the entire Lord of the Rings trilogy, though I still count Two Towers as a historic landmark for Visual Effects. Gollum remains astonishing, and my God if that apocalyptic climax at Mount Doom doesn't combine virtuoso effects with artistic heft. Here we are, Sam, at the end of all things. Amazing!

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor
City of God
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

The most chapter and verse script of the bunch was Mystic River: repetitive, simplistic, obvious, and heavy-handed. But self-importance can be mistaken for depth, and Mystic River was astonishingly given a free pass by the critical establishment.

Best Original Screenplay
The Barbarian Invasions
Dirty Pretty Things
Finding Nemo
In America
Lost in Translation

Sofia Coppola gets a friendly nod with Lost in Translation's Original Screenplay award, which is something of a consolation prize for writer-directors.

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin in The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro in 21 Grams
Dijmon Hounsou in In America
Tim Robbins in Mystic River
Ken Watanabe in The Last Samurai

Tim Robbins is a great actor, but he pretty much sleepwalks through Mystic River as an introverted ghoul. No matter. His quiet work made him stand out from the hyper-emotive grandstanding surrounding him.

Best Supporting Actress
Shohreh Aghdashloo in House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson in Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden in Mystic River
Holly Hunter in Thirteen
Renee Zellweger in Cold Mountain

Renee Zellweger gets nominated for the third year in a role, and finally in a category she can win. Her least glamorous role ever will go down in history.

Best Actor
Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley in House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law in Cold Mountain
Bill Murray in Lost in Translation
Sean Penn in Mystic River

There are several good choices here, but the award goes to one of America's greatest actors, Sean Penn. Though I much preferred his subtler work in 21 Grams, his kabuki-style theatrics as the former criminal-turned reformed store owner-turned vigilante in Mystic River were certainly fun to watch. Frankly, I'd rather the award went to the always-welcome Bill Murray (as good as he's ever been) or Johnny Depp (whose rock star meets Pepe Le Peu meets a teenage girl meets Long John Silver turn in Pirates was truly inspired if I were him, I'd be thankful for the nomination alone).

Best Actress
Keisha Castle-Hughes in Whale Rider
Diane Keaton in Something's Gotta Give
Samantha Morton in In America
Charlize Theron in Monster
Naomi Watts in 21 Grams

Diane Keaton brought a lovely touch of star quality as well as a lived-in believability to her role in Something's Gotta Give. And, Watts is an outstanding choice here, but Charlize Theron did the two things that Oscar loves its starlets to do: Gain weight and cry. Non-glamorous always earns the statues. Think Halle Berry in Monster's Ball and this year another Monster will do the trick.

Best Director
City of God, Fernando Meirelles
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Peter Jackson
Lost in Translation, Sofia Coppola
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Peter Weir
Mystic River, Clint Eastwood

It's definitely a tight race this year, because it could lean in the direction of Hollywood's favorite daughter Sofia Coppola or their elder statesman Clint Eastwood. My wager: they can't deny the thoroughness of New Zealand-born Peter Jackson's complete vision in RotK (which will be a token award for all three films). Besides, Eastwood has won before (Unforgiven), and it's really hard to win two directing Oscars.

Best Picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

The one Ring to rule them all just manages to scrape by Mystic River, only because it's a token gesture that awards all three films in the trilogy.